Back in 1964 Bob Dylan famously sang that “times, they are a-changin’.” The 1960s were a time of momentous change in the United States, but he could have just as easily been talking about the first decade of the 21st century. The demographic makeup of the United States is always shifting, but once every ten years researchers are gifted with snapshot of the country’s makeup. I’m talking, of course, about the U.S.Census and more specifically its 2010 iteration. Much has already been made of the political ramifications of the population count with Florida and Texas siphoning six seats from New York, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and others (for instance this Washington Post article). While these political changes will undoubtedly have an effect on the future of the country, there are trends that will have larger, more far reaching effects.
Today, my Kenan Institute colleague Dr. James Johnson Jr. and I released our report “Six Disruptive Trends: What Census 2010 Will Reveal.” In this report we preview some major themes that we believe the full data from the 2010 Census will corroborate--we’ve drawn our data from a variety of sources, including intercensal statistics from the Census Bureau, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and other government agencies. What do we mean by disruptive trends? If left unacknowledged, these trends have the ability to weaken the competitive advantage the United States still holds in the global marketplace. On the other hand, if dealt with in a deliberate and thoughtful manner, these trends offer an opportunity to reinvigorate the U.S. workforce and create new marketplaces for consumer goods and services. By putting the spotlight on these changes we hope that business and government in America will adjust accordingly to capitalize on these trends.
So, what have we found? While our paper tackles these trends to a much greater depth, I intend to explore each of these movements in later posts.
1) The South Continues to Rise: Over half the population growth in the United States during the past ten years has occurred in the South. This has been primarily due to the migration of people from all demographic groups and higher fertility rates among some groups, particularly Hispanics.
2) America Is Browning: nonwhites made up an estimated 85 percent of U.S. population growth.
3) Marrying Out Is So In: Marriages between people of different ethnicities has doubled since 1980 with those between Hispanics and whites accounting for 41 percent of all racially mixed marriages.
4) The Silver Tsunami Is Arriving: Nearly 80 million baby boomers will be retiring over the next 20 years. The largest generation in America will put immense pressure on social security and the healthcare system as they will also have longer lives.
5) Closing the Wage Gap?: Almost half of all jobs in the United States, 49.8 percent, are held by women. Similarly, women are more likely to attend college and hold jobs that are less likely to disappear in economic downturns. Most surprising? In some metropolitan areas, women are earning up to 20 percent more than men due to higher educational attainment!
6) Grandparents as Parents: Between 2001 and 2010 over the number of children living in grandparent-headed households increased by 26.1 percent. As this phenomenon continues to grow it will put increased financial strain on older generations
These six trends point to an increasing diversification of the American populace in several different areas--especially age and racial/ethnic makeup. A new array of products and services, tailored for age, lifestyle, and culture, will be demanded. How will businesses and communities respond? Share your opinions and comments and read the full article, available on the Kenan Institute’s website.
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